If
global warming occurs, will it be harmful?
" The idea that global
warming would melt the ice caps and flood coastal cities seems to be mere science
fiction. A slight increase in temperature -- whether natural or mankind induced
-- is not likely to lead to a massive melting of the earth ice caps, as sometimes
claimed in the media. Also, sea-level rises over the centuries relate more to
warmer and thus expanding oceans, not to melting ice caps.
" Contrary
to some groups' fear mongering about the threat of diseases, temperature changes
are likely to have little effect on the spread of diseases. Experts say that deterioration
in public health practices such as rapid urbanization without adequate infrastructure,
forced large scale resettlement of people, increased drug resistance, higher mobility
through air travel, and lack of insect-control programs have the greatest impact
on the spread of vector-borne diseases.
" Larger quantities of CO2
in the atmosphere and warmer climates would likely lead to an increase in vegetation.
During warm periods in history vegetation flourished, at one point allowing the
Vikings to farm in now frozen Greenland.
What are the policy proposals?
" The U.S. agreed to a 7% reduction of CO2 emissions from what they were
in 1990 -- a target to be met by 2008-2012. This agreement would result in massive
restrictions on energy use and large taxpayer-funded subsidies for new technologies.
" The Clinton Administration has supported a system of tradable
permits to be used by companies that emit CO2. These permits could be bought and
sold inter-nationally, giving companies an incentive to lower emissions and thus
sell their permits. But this system would require massive international oversight
on the order of a worldwide EPA to track CO2 emissions, and the costs to consumers
would still be high.
" Because of the devastating effects that global
warming policies will have on economic growth, the treaty that was discussed in
Kyoto in December 1997 currently excludes developing nations. However, the US
Senate has voted 95-0 against supporting a treaty that doesnt include developing
nations.
What economic impact will the proposals have?
"
According to a report by the Department of Energy, stringent targets to reduce
fossil-fuel emissions in the US will cause energy-intensive industries, including
steel, iron, chemical, rubber and plastic, to flee from the developed countries
to undeveloped countries, taking with them hundreds of thousands of jobs.
" Carbon taxes will cause relatively large income losses in the poorest
one-fifth of the population. The poor, because they spend a greater proportion
of their income on necessities, would have few ways to cut back to compensate
for higher living costs.
" Stabilizing emissions at 1990 levels by
2010 would reduce the growth of US per capita income by 5% per year.(Gary W. Yohe,
Wesleyan University)
" The burden would fall on many individuals
and families and would be unfair in that it would be quite unrelated to income,
wealth or ability to pay. Instead, the burden would be determined by energy use
patterns and circumstances, such as distance from work, condition and energy efficiency
of homes, automobiles, and appliances.
" Senior citizens on fixed
incomes would find their energy costs escalating and their income dwindling.
Will
the policies actually stop global warming?
" By all estimates, only
severe reductions in global CO2 emissions -- on the order of 60 percent or more
-- will alter the computer forecasts. The resulting economic dislocations would
be tremendous, potentially outweighing the negative impacts of even the most apocalyptic
warming scenario.
" If the policies do not include developing nations
the result will likely be a reallocation of emissions to developing nations, not
a reduction of emissions.
" If the entire world is included and CO2
emissions are severely restricted, the science is not clear what impact, if any,
it would have on the worlds climate.
For more information on global climate
change, please contact
Consumer Alert
1001 Connecticut Ave. NW Suite 1128
Washington,
DC 20036
Tel.: (202)467-5809 Fax: (202)467-5814